One of the reasons I love the mortgage and property markets is that it is never short of data, conjecture or opinion. I’m writing this on the cusp of the phased end to the Government's stamp duty holiday and we are seeing huge amounts of column inches around purchasers in a mad dash to complete, or risk having to pay up to £15,000 extra to secure their home. Of course, I’m paraphrasing from one such story, although there is little doubt that we are in midst of some hectic times.

It’s also a time when speculation is emerging about what might happen next to the housing market, and you don’t have to look too hard to find some slightly confusing information which only adds a further layer of uncertainty for consumers.

For example, recent data from NAEA Propertymark for May suggested that 33% of properties sold for more than the original asking price, beating last month’s previous record of 32%. Demand was also said to have hit a new record high, with the average number of house hunters registered per estate agent branch reaching 506. This represented an increase from 427 in April, and the highest figure ever on record for May, beating the previous record of 421 in May 2004. Conversely, supply was reported to be at the lowest level recorded since 2002. The number of properties available per member branch stood at 25 in May, falling from 27 in April, meaning there is now an average of 20 buyers for every available property on the market.

However, subsequent headlines on the back of a report from Rightmove focused on how the UK property market is beginning to lose pace due to record prices and lack of choice. The portal revealed that the price of property coming to market saw an 0.8% rise in June, pushing the national average to a new record high for the third consecutive month to £336,073. Significantly, this registered as a much smaller rise than last month’s 1.8% or April’s 2.1%, indicating an early sign of a slowing in the pace of the current market.

On the flip side, Rightmove did also highlight that it is still the largest rise at this time of year since 2015, buoyed by the strength of both the top end of the market and hotspot lifestyle change locations. This has resulted in new record highs for prices in all countries and regions of Britain, further stretching affordability for mass-market buyers whose ability to move is also affected by an unprecedented lack of choice of property to buy.

Looking at only two pieces of statistical data – which were released within days of each other but focusing on different months – it’s easy to see how confusion may arise amongst potential buyers, especially if reading some of the more sensationalised headlines within the national press. This underlines the key role played by the advice process in cutting through some of the rhetoric and, most importantly of all, in delivering responsible solutions for borrowers who are in the right position to purchase at the right time for them and in an affordable manner.

From a landlord perspective, such headlines have lesser impact due to a more business-like, medium to longer-term outlook and this is certainly evident in the conversations we have with our clients day in, day out.

It takes a brave person to predict the housing market with any great conviction but with confidence and demand remaining high and the supply gap widening, then things continue to look positive for the housing, mortgage and intermediary markets in H2 2021.